Midday Macro

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2023: A Year of Growth, Returns, and Disinflation Nobody Anticipated - Midday Macro – 12/22/2023

Powell Flips the Script Despite Stronger Data and High Disinflation Uncertainty - Midday Macro – 12/15/2023

Time for the Push Back: Inflation Isn’t Beat, and the Fed Can Be Patient – Midday Macro – 12/8/2023

The Fed Cautiously Reflects on Disinflationary Progress as Some See Menacing Dragons, While Others See Beautiful Butterflies Coming for the Economy - Midday Macro – 12/1/2023

Stronger Disinflationary Signs Keep Fed Happy and Rally Alive Despite Mixed Growth Picture - Midday Macro – 11/17/2023

Hot Mics and Head Fakes: Fed Re-Emphasizes Inflation Going into Next Week’s CPI Report - Midday Macro – 11/10/2023

Reduced Treasury Supply, Higher Productivity, Looser Labor Markets, and Slowing Growth Support a More Dovish Fed and Lower Yields/Higher Equities - Midday Macro – 11/3/2023

Markets Continue to be Hit by Fiscal and Geopolitical Macro Doom Loop - Midday Macro – 10/27/2023

Hotter Inflation Readings and Poor Treasury Auctions Put Recent Rally to the Test - Midday Macro – 10/13/2023

Blockbuster NFP Report Changes Growth Narrative, Supporting Risk Assets Despite Increasing the Likelihood of “Higher for Longer” Fed Policy Stance - Midday Macro – 10/6/2023

The Fed Upgrades its “Higher for Longer” Stance While Q4 Growth Likely to Cool Quickly - Midday Macro – 9/22/2023

Rising Energy Costs Are a Real Dilemma for Central Banks at This Point in the Cycle - Midday Macro – 9/15/2023

A “Calibrating” Fed Continues to Support a Stronger Dollar and Higher Yields, Watch Out Equities - Midday Macro – 9/8/2023

The Fed is “Proceeding Carefully,” But Further Hikes Likely if Growth Continues to Stay Strong – Midday Macro – 8/25/2023

The Correction is Here as Rising Real Rates Kill the Rally While the Fed Focuses on the “Totality” of Data – Midday Macro – 8/18/2023

Falling Inflation Divides Doves and Hawks Further As Rally Stalls and Yields Rise – Midday Macro – 8/11/2023

Higher Rate Volatility Weighs on Risk Appetite Despite the U.S. Economy Remaining Resilient – Midday Macro – 8/4/2023

The Fed Sees a Pathway to the Soft-Landing Promised Land as Growth Persists While Disinflation Grows – Midday Macro - 7/28/2023

Markets Will Transition from Optimistic to Cautious into Year-End as Consumers Shift from Resilient to Pragmatic - Midday Macro - 7/21/2023

The Fed’s “Shock and Awe” Tightening Campaign is Finally Beating Inflation, Now Comes the Period of Weaker Growth – Midday Macro - 7/14/2023

A Tale of Two Markets: Equities vs. Rates - Who is Right in a Higher for Longer World? – Midday Macro - 6/30/2023

Central Banks are Talking Tough, but Inflation is Falling, Reducing Need for Tighter Policy and Keeping Risk Assets Rallying. Can it Last? – Midday Macro - 6/16/2023

Retail Buyers Reawaken, Driving Rotation into Small-Caps as Markets Await CPI and Fed Next Week– Midday Macro - 6/9/2023

Economy Slowing and Fed Still Has Work to Do, Who Cares, Buy Mega-Caps? – Midday Macro - 5/26/2023

Is the Greatly Expected Slowdown Finally Here? And Will Markets Continue to Look Through It? – Midday Macro - 5/12/2023

Any Regrets? “I’ve Had a Few…” Powell Commits to not Committing, as Wage Pressures Grow and Markets Stay Rangebound – Midday Macro - 5/5/2023

Macro Headwinds vs. Micro Tailwinds: Half-Empty / Half-Full Risk Sentiments Continue – 4/28/2023

Rangebound Choppy Price Action on a Heavy Fed Rhetoric but Light Data Week Leaves Risk-Reward Still Poor– 4/21/2023

Markets Rally on Short-Covering, Cooling Data, and a More Cautious Fed Tone, But Will It Last? – 3/31/2023

Uncertainty Continues for Markets, Fed, and Main Street as Credit Conditions Now Determine Policy Outlook – 3/24/2023

r** Reached, “F Around and Find Out” Time for the Fed with Increased Two-Sided Risk Management Now Warranted - MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ – 3/17/2023

Are Things Starting to Break? Financial Instability and Falling Wages = 25bp Hike in March Despite Expected Hotter CPI - MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ– 3/10/2023

Less Hawky-Fed-Talky Supported Risk Assets on the Week Despite Rising Real Rates - MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ– 3/3/2023

"No Landing” Fears Overdone as Strong Start to 2023 Will Fade - MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ– 2/17/2023

Fed Officials Jawbone Yields Higher, Causing Stock Market Rally to Take a Breather - MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ – 2/10/2023

The Three Horseman (Fed, Mega-Cap Earnings, and Jobs Report) Fail to Kill the Rally - MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ – 2/3/2023

Technicals > Fundamentals as Large-Cap Growth Outperforms and Bullish Animal Spirits Awaken Further - MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ– 1/27/2023

Fed Softens Tone As Hard Data Weakens - MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ – 1/20/2023

Inflation Readings Cool Further, Leading Markets to Question Fed’s Resolve- MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ– 1/13/2023

“Bad remains Good” and 2023 Macro Themes - MIDDAY MACRO WEEKEND READ – 1/6/2023

© 2024 Michael L. Ball
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