Midday Macro - Bi-weekly Color – 5/4/2022
Overnight and Morning Market Recap:
Price Action and Headlines:
Equities are mixed, with indexes back to overnight levels after selling pressures in the AM reversed with more defensive sectors outperforming after a weaker Service PMI renewed growth concerns
Treasuries are lower, with the curve slightly steeper but generally little changed as traders await the Fed’s FOMC statement and Powell’s presser to gauge if continued inflation has prompted a more hawkish tilt
WTI is higher, as Brussels finalized a ban on Russian oil imports, with sign-on from Germany, and EIA inventory data showed distillate stocks continue to fall
Narrative Analysis:
Equities are mixed with the S&P now higher thanks to more defensive sectors; after a weaker morning session which left tech and small-caps under pressure but all eyes are awaiting the Fed’s FOMC meeting results at 2 PM. Today’s ISM Service PMI report showed a weakening in demand and renewed supply-side restraints, given longer delivery times and labor shortages, while March’s trade deficit reached record levels. Treasuries are little changed, with yields hovering near recent highs, but again traders are awaiting Powell and company. Oil is rising notably thanks to Europe codifying its Russian oil ban, while diesel shortages continue to see prices elevated there. The dollar is little changed.
The S&P is outperforming the Nasdaq and Russell with High Dividend Yield, Value, and Low Volatility factors, and Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples sectors are all outperforming.
S&P optionality strike levels have the Zero-Gamma Level at 4382 while the Call Wall is 4700. Key resistance remains around 4200, and support is set around 4125. The Vol Trigger has dropped lower to 4300, which is a large open interest point and ultimate resistance. There should be a strong directional move out of the FOMC statement, but how hawkish Powell is in the presser will determine the end trend.
@spotgamma
S&P technical levels have support at 4155, then 4100, and resistance at 4205, then 4255 area. Monday put in a classic false breakdown, which indicates the trend is bullish as false break down + hammer candle = bullish in a classical technical analysis sense. However, FOMC days often have been pivot points, with January and March being near tactical lows before selling resumed a few weeks later. There is also usually a fake move before the real trend occurs, making these days hard to trade due to the trappyness.
@AdamMancini4
Treasuries are lower with the 10yr yield at 2.98%, higher by around 1.5bps on the session, while the 5s30s curve is steeper by 1bps to 0bps.
Deeper Dive:
Everyone knows where this is heading. The Fed will tighten policy through rate hikes and balance sheet reduction to an above neutral stance quickly. As we stand, the economy can probably take it, given that on aggregate national balance sheets and income statements for households and businesses are historically strong with a much healthier level of debt/leverage in the system than in the past and a tight jobs market. And although it would likely be better to move fast, raising rates by 75bps in multiple meetings and then pausing, the prolonged inflationary pulse and methodical nature of the Fed will continue to feed a high level of uncertainty on just how far the Fed has to go before its policy can normalize and financial conditions and real rates can stabilize as inflation finally falls back towards target, allowing for a more sustainable organic growth story to emerge by mid-2023. Until then, it will be the same old story for some time; a slowing economy coming off reopening and stimulus highs, capacity constrained by continued/slowly-improving supply-side impairments with demand stabilizing and readjusting to a more historical/structural normal level/ratio (goods▼ vs. services▲), all of which should support a slow reduction in the current inflationary pressures, allowing that mythical neutral monetary policy level to be eventually seen and possibly never reached in the eyes of risk allocators.
Markets continue to chop with a more negative tilt due to the same set of worries. The Fed’s projected “aggressive” path of tightening is reducing risk appetite, pressuring earnings multiples despite the Q1 earnings season beating expectations so far, while recent economic data shows no material declines in real activity (although sentiment and survey-based data continue to weaken). The war in Ukraine has not materially changed, but its prolonged nature continues to pressure commodity prices higher and increasingly being a drag on global growth (especially in the Eurozone). China's ongoing state of lockdowns is reducing growth expectations there and abroad due to worries around production and supply chain impairments, but expectations for further stimulus are growing. In combination, the latter two issues are inflationary with unclear durations, while the Fed’s future actions are based on where inflation goes, resulting in a somewhat open-ended negative feedback loop between the three.
*Q1 earnings so far (279 out of 500) have risen by 8.6%, with 80.6% reporting better than expected. However, weakening expectations and tighter financial conditions have multiple contractions driving prices lower YTD
Expectations for today’s Fed meeting are for a 50bps Fed Funds rate hike and the announcement that balance sheet reduction will start in line with the parameter laid out in the March FOMC minutes (monthly runoff caps of $60bln for Treasuries and $35bln for MBS that will be phased in over a three month period). The most important thing we will be watching is the continued use of “expeditiously remove accommodation” in the statement, indicating a prolonged period of 50bp hikes until Fed Funds reach neutral and how Powell handles the inevitable question of whether the Fed would raise rates by 75bps at the next meeting if inflation continues to be persistent. We don’t expect a hawkish surprise today, given inflation is peaking, but a large number of descents (against 50bps in favor of 75bps) or hints a 75bps hike is being discussed would likely heavily weigh on risk assets tactically.
".. it will be difficult (for the Fed) to surprise in a hawkish direction as markets are pricing in an aggressive front-loaded tightening path of around 190bp in hikes over the next four FOMC meetings and a peak rate of around 3.36% next year." - B of A
Moving away from the Fed and due to the ongoing “disruptions” to global trade from both the Ukraine conflict and China’s zero-Covid policy, as well as continued (all be it slightly improving) labor and material shortages in the U.S., we are throwing in the towel and changing our “Real Supply-Side Improvement” theme to just “Real Supply-Side Situation.” We continue to expect supply-side impairments to improve, but given the new inflationary pressures occurring abroad and persistent shortages capping production capacity domestically, we have less conviction that things are improving and instead just want to highlight developments in what is likely to be a more aggregately neutral environment with clear winners and losers.
*A decrease in job openings for logistical-related areas indicates a reduced urgency, and a potential improvement in supply chains is coming. However, new developments outside the U.S. are increasingly beginning to impact firms
The list of commodities being affected by the Ukraine war continues to grow, with Neon gas, used in the production of semiconductors, being the latest to enter the spotlight, given Ukraine's role in producing global supplies. Turning to food, poor growing conditions for wheat in the U.S. and India are furthering supply worries, started due to the war, and calls for protectionism around agricultural products are growing more generally globally. We don’t see a meaningful reprieve in agg commodity prices occurring soon and continue to see pockets of industrial commodities worsening (Neon, Diesel, Lithium,…).
*Although not new, given the immediate focus on what would happen to Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports following the start of the war, worsening growing conditions around the globe for wheat are renewing concerns there will be shortages
Turning to China, reports of improvements in Shanghai’s Covid situation are being weighed on by additional restrictions elsewhere. Beijing has effectively canceled the Labour Day holiday by limiting travel and stopping dining out, suspended in-person school for an additional week, implemented a work from home policy when possible, and public transportation has been shut down. So on aggregate, any improvements to growth from cities possibly emerging from lockdowns (such as Shanghai) are negated by new restrictions elsewhere. This leaves us hopeful production and logistical activity are improving along the coastal regions, but the Covid wave is well intact on a national level, increasing the probability areas recovering will be “reinfected” (only takes one case with zero-Covid to have a big effect) and have to shutdown again.
*Although the number of cases remains low, the zero-Covid policy means only a few cases can close down vast areas and stop most economic activity and impair global supply chains
Putting what we discussed together, we see no material change in the two largest external current macro headwinds, the Ukraine War and China’s Covid lockdowns. Both of these headwinds are reducing global growth while increasing inflationary pressures with unclear durations. This leaves the Fed facing a growing stagflationary environment. Currently, the Fed is clearly focused on regaining inflation-fighting credibility, embarking on a historically fast tightening of policy, jawboning financial conditions tighter, and taking what the market gives it in the way of rate hikes (which could mean a 75bps hike later this year). As a result, reiterating our initial comments, the market will continue to chop lower until inflation recedes and the “terminal” Fed rate is “known.” As often discussed here, we believe inflation will fall, given demand destruction for goods (and increasingly services) from already higher prices and a return to the pre-pandemic, more normal consumption basket. Longer-term, we see an eventual realignment/improvement in commodity production/trade (worse case priced in currently) also occurring (however, this is clearly less certain). It will unfortunately just take longer given pressures out of Ukraine/Russia, China, and the renewal of supply-side impairments domestically (such as shortages of skilled labor and materials (fuels)) highlighted in recent business surveys. As a result, we continue to advocate patience in what should remain a choppy tactical trading environment.
*Numerous economists, strategists, and lonely Substack writers believe the worst of inflationary increases are behind the U.S., but given external pressures, it is hard to have much conviction, leaving future Fed policy expectations in limbo
Econ Data:
The ISM Services PMI fell to 57.1 in April from 58.3 in March and below forecasts of 58.5. The largest detractors to the headline index were a slowing of New Orders (54.6 vs. 60.1 in March), Backlog of Orders (59.4 vs. 64.5), and a contraction in Employment (49.5 vs. 54). Meanwhile, Prices rose (84.6 vs. 83.8), reaching an all-time high, while Supplier Deliveries times (65.1 vs. 63.4) also increased. Production did improve (59.1 vs. 55.5). Services businesses are continuing to replenish inventories as the Inventories Index expanded for a third straight month.
Why it Matters: A weaker report than expected, with the headline and underlying sub-index showing renewed supply-side impairments/shortages affecting prices and logistics. The respondent comments were considerably more pessimistic regarding these issues. Anthony Nieves, head of the survey, said, “there was a pullback in the composite index, mostly due to the restricted labor pool (impacting the Employment Index) and the slowing of new orders growth. Business activity remains strong; however, high inflation, capacity constraints, and logistical challenges are impediments, and the Russia-Ukraine war continues to affect material costs, most notably for fuel and chemicals.”
*April’s Service PMI report marked a step back in supply-side improvements and showed that inflationary pressures have moved from goods to services
*There was a clear theme in the limited amount of comments published with inflationary pressures increasing due to worsening supply-side impairments
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell for a second straight month to 55.4 in April from 57.1 in March, missing market forecasts of 57.6. It was the lowest reading since July 2020, as a slowdown was seen in Production (53.6 vs. 54.5 in March), New Orders (53.5 vs. 53.8), and Employment (50.9 vs. 56.3). Meanwhile, price pressures moderated slightly while the backlog of orders decreased. Increases were seen in Customers’ Inventories (37.1 vs. 34.1) and Supplier Delivery Times (67.2) vs. 65.4).
Why it Matters: April Manufacturing PMI report indicated the manufacturing sector was growing at a slower pace, and there was a step back in supply-side improvements with worse logistical conditions and labor availability. “The US manufacturing sector remains in a demand-driven, supply chain-constrained environment. In April, progress slowed in solving labor shortage problems at all tiers of the supply chain”, Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said. “Panel sentiment remained strongly optimistic regarding demand, though the three positive growth comments for every cautious comment was down from March’s ratio of 6-to-1. Panelists continue to note supply chain and pricing issues as their biggest concern,” Fiore further said. Panelist comments were mixed too slightly more pessimistic due to hiring and turnover concerns.
*The majority of sub-components of the ISM Manufacturing PMI report were negative contributors, while increases in delivery times aren’t necessarily a good thing either
*Delivery times were overwhelmingly the most significant contributor in April
*The panelist comments were more mixed but generally indicated demand is remaining strong, but supply-side impairments (logistics, materials, and labor) continue to cap production
Construction spending slightly increased by 0.1% in March, slowing from a 0.5% increase in February and missing market expectations of a 0.7% gain. Construction spending increased 11.7% on a year-on-year basis. Spending on private construction rose 0.2%, mainly due to higher activity in new single-family residential construction (1.3%) and communication infrastructure (0.1%), while spending fell for commercial construction (-1.9%). On the other hand, public construction outlays fell 0.2% from the previous month, dragged down by lower spending for non-residential construction (-0.3%).
Why it Matters: A weaker month for construction as residential construction of single-family homes was the only real positive contributor. The lack of inventory/supply of homes and continued demand despite weakening affordability remains a significant catalyst for construction activity. There were declines in Commercial (-1.9%) and Manufacturing (-1.6%), with the majority of the non-residential categories outside those two also being negative on the month.
*Single-Unit Residential construction continues to expand robustly, confirming expectations that more inventory is slowly coming to the market, as seen with increases in housing permits and starts
The number of job openings rose by 205K in March to a series high of 11.549 million, above market expectations of 11 million. Hires, at 6.7 million, were little changed while total separations edged up to 6.3 million. Within separations, quits edged up to a series high of 4.5 million,with the so-called quits rate rising to 3%, while layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.4 million. Job openings increased in retail trade (+155,000) and durable goods manufacturing (+50,000). Job openings decreased in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-69,000); state and local government education (-43,000); and federal government (-20,000). Job openings increased mainly in the South region.
Why it Matters: Labor markets continue to show no signs of loosening, with overall job openings and quits levels at series highs. The job openings and turnover data support the significant increase seen last week in the employment cost index, which rose by 1.4% in the quarter. Friday’s job report is expected to increase by around 400K. At this monthly rate, it would take over 18 months to move the job openings level closer to a longer-run average of around 4 million. This means, especially coupled with the higher quits rate level, that wage inflation will likely continue to be strong for some time, although we question the stickiness of many of these openings as the economy slows and end demand falls into year-end. Finally, and this may be a stubborn view that inflation will subside and technological changes towards more physical and digital automation as well as continued globalization/regionalization pressures will ultimately mean labor’s ability to increase its real wages is as strong as its going to get currently.
*Series highs for Openings and Quits as labor continues to hold the upper hand in the current environment.
Factory orders increased 2.2% in March, the biggest rise since May 2021 and twice the market forecast of a 1.1% rise. Orders for transportation equipment edged up by 0.4% and those for machinery by 1.3%. There were notable increases in orders for ships and boats (18.1%), metalworking machinery (13.4%), and defense search and navigation equipment (10.8%). Elsewhere, orders for computers and electronics jumped 2.6%. Meanwhile, orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft, which are seen as a measure of business spending plans on equipment, rebounded 1.3%. Figures for February were revised to show a 0.1% gain instead of a -0.5% drop initially reported. Shipments increased 2.3% on the month, while inventories rose 1.3%. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.72, down from 6.74 in February.
Why it Matters: A solid report showing manufacturing activity rebounded after slowing in February. The majority of categories were higher, with large increases in Computers and Electronic Products as well as Electrical Equipment more generally. This supports two well know growth themes with stronger Capex going on to expand the digital infrastructure as well as continued demand for appliances and electrical infrastructure for new homes. Transportation equipment rose 0.4%, with rises in Motor Vehicles and Ships offsetting decreases in Non-Defense and Defense Aircrafts.
*February was revised higher while March saw significant expansion in a number of areas
*After hitting extreme levels at the start of the pandemic and falling hard subsequently after, the Unfilled Orders to Shipment Ratio is starting to stabilize
The U.S. trade deficit widened 22.3% to a record high of $109.8 billion in March, as a broad-based rise in prices lifted imports to the highest value on record. Imports to the United States increased 10.3 % to $351.5 billion in March, the highest since the series began in 1950. Purchases of goods rose by $32 billion due to imports of industrial supplies and materials. Imports of goods increased by $10 billion while those of capital goods rose by $5.2 billion. Exports increased by 5.6% to $241.7 billion, also the highest since the series began in 1950. Services exports increased by $1.2 billion to $71.1 billion.
Why it Matters: The widening of the trade deficit in the first quarter largely explains the -1.4% Q1 GDP print, the worst since the pandemic recovery began, as net exports subtracted -3.2 percentage points from the headline GDP number. We expect consumer demand for goods to continue to fall to a more historical % of total consumption ratio/relationship as consumer spending preferences/trends return to a more normal pre-pandemic levels, further, with inventory levels slowly beginning to normalize (depending on industry), although not evenly across industries, given continuous supply constraints, import demand should also fall. Finally, reductions in inflationary pressures should begin to materialize as the end consumer and inventory building demand falls, reducing the growth in both export and import aggregate levels. However, the March move in the deficit was big, contrasting with the current strong dollar trend, which should be hurt by growing deficits based on textbook economics.
*Besides overall record levels of imports, exports, and the deficit size, several subcategories also made notable moves, with industrial supplies imports rising notably helped by price increases in petroleum
*The trade deficit surged to a record in March, reaching $109.8 billion verse an expected $107.1 billion estimate and much larger than the $89.8 billion in the prior month (rev from $89.2 billion) with imports increasing 10.3%
Technicals and Charts:
Four Key Macro House Charts:
Growth/Value Ratio: Growth is higher on the day, but Value is higher on the week. Large-Cap Value is the best performing size/factor on the day.
Chinese Iron Ore Future Price: Iron Ore futures are lower on the day and the week as growth fears and production restrictions continue to weigh on demand
5yr-30yr Treasury Spread: The curve is steeper on the day but flatter on the week, with Treasuries in the front of the curve little changed before the FOMC meeting decision
EUR/JPY FX Cross: The Euro is higher on the day and the week despite a more risk-off environment due to the EZ announcing a targeted oil embargo on Russia
Other Charts:
April was bad for stocks, with the S&P 500 falling by -9.60% on the month, marking its worst month since the COVID-19 shock in March 2020 (-12%). The most significant sector drivers were: Consumer Discretionary (-2.28% drag on index), Communication Services (-1.96% drag) and Information Technology (-1.33% drag).
Equity liquidity continues to worsen. “Liquidity in the most liquid equity future in the world ranks in the 7th percentile in the past ten years and offers just $6M to trade on the screens." - Goldman
“Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE #inflation gauge pulled back considerably in March to 3.1% annualized rate; now well off recent peak of 6.3% in January 2022 but still above pre-pandemic average.” - @LizAnnSonders
The U.S. Inflation Surprise Index has recently dropped by the largest amount since the pandemic, “a strong signal the inflation rate is likely nearing a peak.” - @LeutholdGroup
Goldman’s Research Team believes we are at peak inflation as Core PCE will continue to see declining (and eventually negative) price pressures from durable goods while contributions by the service side stabilize.
New Orders minus Inventories indicate that the overall ISM Manufacturing Index has further to decline. - @macro_daily
“China's business surveys sank in April, mainly due to the latest lockdowns across the country, but also raising fears of a global manufacturing downturn” - @macro_daily
Consumer activity is dropping fast due to lockdowns and travel restrictions as seen in a 5-factor consumer activity index (Confidence, Loans, Car Sales, Air Traffic, Retail Sales) - @LONGCONVEXITY
Article by Macro Themes:
Medium-term Themes:
Real Supply-Side Situation:
It’s Official: Shanghai Lockdown Reignites Supply-Chain Problems for U.S. Companies – WSJ
Some U.S. companies are warning that Covid-19 lockdowns in Shanghai and elsewhere in China are denting sales, disrupting operations, and putting added strain on supply chains that could be felt well into the summer. Apple said it could take a sales hit of as much as $8 billion in its current quarter, primarily because of the Shanghai lockdowns. Industrial giant Honeywell said the Covid measures had curbed production at half of its Chinese plants. J.B. Hunt said the freight carrier’s customers are worried about deliveries scheduled for July.
Why it Matters:
Even if the lockdowns lift soon, the ripple effects may be felt for months as many of the cargo ships currently waiting outside Shanghai will make their way to the U.S., where ports are starting to improve after months of congestion. While China’s government can boost GDP through stimulus measures, analysts at Bank of America expect that it will be harder to restore the confidence of the private sector after such severe measures. “Supply-chain relocation out of China may accelerate unless there is a timely relaxation of the zero-Covid policy,” the analysts wrote. The bottom line is the longer zero-Covid lasts; the more momentum reshoring will gain.
China Macroprudential and Political Loosening:
Same Old Story: China Lockdowns Wreak Havoc on Economy as Xi Pledges Support - Bloomberg
China’s stringent lockdowns to curb Covid-19 infections are taking a significant toll on the economy and roiling global supply chains, with President Xi Jinping under pressure to deliver on pledges to support growth. Both manufacturing and services activity seen in this last weekend's PMI reports plunged to their worst levels since February 2020, and the offshore yuan weakened further in the wake of the data. The figures came a day after the Communist Party’s Politburo, led by Xi, promised to meet its economic targets while at the same time sticking with its Covid Zero policy to curb infections.
Why it Matters:
Xi appeared to soften his stance toward the private sector, telling the Politburo meeting that the healthy development of private capital should be encouraged. At the same time, he said capital must be regulated and shouldn’t undermine the objectives of common prosperity. Activity is likely to remain depressed throughout the second quarter as virus restrictions are tightened in several places. The fear of widespread outbreaks has ruined the prospect of a bump in consumption during the five-day Labor Day break, which is usually one of the busiest seasons for domestic tourism.
Longer-term Themes:
National Security Assets in a Multipolar World:
Tightening: China to tighten export controls on dual-use technology - NikkeiAsia
China will require exporters of products that can have military applications to provide documentation of the intended use by the buyers in an effort to halt the militarization of sensitive technology. According to the proposed regulations, the government will conduct a risk assessment of the country or region to which the product is being exported. The risk grade is determined based on national security and interests as well as foreign policy needs. Export licenses for high-risk destinations are expected to be subject to strict screening.National security and interests were also included in the criteria used to create the list of products to be subject to export controls.
Why it Matters:
Strengthening control over products that can be used for military purposes is designed to prevent the proliferation of military products to terrorists and other groups. However, the selection of target items is still to be determined. Since the authorities make decisions based on broad concepts such as national security, there is concern that arbitrary rulings will be made, especially when a trading partner has deteriorating relations with Beijing. Rare-earth metals, which are used in the manufacture of high-performance magnets, could be subject to export controls depending on how authorities interpret the regulations. The risk assessment of export partner countries also remains ambiguous.
Dependence: EU Plans to Court Africa to Help Replace Russian Gas Imports – Bloomberg
The European Union will seek to step up cooperation with African countries to help replace imports of Russian natural gas and reduce dependence on Moscow by almost two-thirds this year.The EU plan to increase LNG imports by 50 billion cubic meters and boost shipments of pipeline gas from countries other than Russia by 10 billion cubic meters requires setting relationships with traditional suppliers on a new basis and extending trade to new emerging suppliers such as potential Western African nations.
Why it Matters:
Countries in Africa, in particular in the western part of the continent, such as Nigeria, Senegal, and Angola, offer largely untapped potential for liquified natural gas, according to a draft EU document. The draft energy strategy also seeks to prepare the region for imports of 10 million tons of renewable hydrogen by 2030 to help replace gas from Russia, in line with the ambitious EU Green Deal to walk away from fossil fuels and reach climate neutrality by mid-century. This is on top of increased imports from the U.S. as well as the Middle East. The bloc also plans to double the capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor from Azerbaijan.
Electrification and Digitalization Policy:
ReRoute: Russia reroutes internet in occupied Ukrainian territory through Russian telcos – The Record
After knocking out the internet service in Kherson, Ukraine, this weekend, Russian forces reinstated service but routed it through Russia’s network instead of Ukrainian telecommunications infrastructure. The State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine (SSSCIP) said the disconnection was “caused by line breakages at fiber-optic backbones and by a power outage with service operators’ equipment in these regions.” Service returned on Sunday, but connectivity through regional Ukrainian provider Skynet (Khersontelecom) is now being routed through Russia’s Miranda and Rostelecom networks.
Why it Matters:
Disabling Ukrainian communications is part of Russia’s effort “to make at least an appearance of a new quasi-state” in the occupied areas to show Russians that the Kremlin is making progress in the war. Russian forces did something similar after capturing Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk in 2014. The goal was to make Russia’s “false propaganda an uncontested source of information,” according to the SSSCIP, which added that Russian forces also wanted to show some signs of success in the conflict by creating “people’s republics” in occupied territory.
Commodity Super Cycle Green.0:
Milestone: ArcelorMittal successfully tests use of green hydrogen at Canadian plant - FT
Engineers at ArcelorMittal operations at Contrecoeur in Quebec replaced about 7% of the natural gas typically used to reduce iron ore with hydrogen made from renewable electricity during the 24-hour test earlier this month, in what the world’s second-largest steelmaker claims are a milestone for the industry.
Why it Matters:
The initiative marks another step in the global effort to improve the green credentials of an industry that accounts for 7 to 9% of all direct fossil fuel emissions. Some of the world’s biggest steelmakers, including ArcelorMittal, Thyssenkrupp, and China’s Baowu, have launched various initiatives to reduce their carbon footprint.
Current Macro Theme Summaries:
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